ScenarioX
Bitcoin Rally Losing Momentum as Total Demand Falls Below Zero
The recent rally in Bitcoin appears to have been largely driven by a derivatives-led short squeeze, with much of the short-term upside momentum now likely exhausted. Meanwhile, spot market demand has failed to show sufficiently strong new inflows to support the move, and futures demand has also begun to decline rapidly. As a result, total demand across both spot and futures markets is now weakening significantly. Historically, during bearish phases, once Total Demand fell below zero, Bitcoin tended to either decline or enter prolonged periods of sideways consolidation. At the same time, macro conditions remain pressured by rising sovereign bond yields across major economies, while selling pressure is increasingly visible on U.S.-based exchanges. While a technical rebound may occur due to the short-term price decline, downward trend pressure is likely to persist unless total demand recovers.