Crypto Mommy
Reading the Bitcoin Bottom via HODL Waves
The Bitcoin HODL Waves indicator helps us spot market tops and bottoms by looking at how long different cohorts hold their supply. Typically： Market Tops -- Short-term holders (<6 months) spike rapidly, signaling high turnover and an overheated market. At the same time, long-term holder bands shrink significantly as smart money distributes their bags. Market Bottom -- Short-term holders hit a floor, while long-term holder bands quietly expand. The market goes quiet, nobody wants to sell, and supply naturally ages—a classic sign of bottom accumulation. What’s different this cycle? Compared to previous cycles, the long-term holder base is much higher at the bottom (the blue/purple bands are noticeably thicker), reflecting growing institutional adoption. This supply structure is structurally stronger than before, which changes how BTC forms its bottom. Unless we break below heavy volume support (currently around $70.7K, breakdown analysis in the next post), the most likely scenario is that we chop between $70K–$82K to burn time and digest the supply (chopping sideways instead of dropping lower). Right now, $80K offers decent on-chain support and acts as the main anchor for price. If we hold $80K and cleanly reclaim the 200-day MA, a quick push to $84K–$88K is on the table. If momentum fades, expect more sideways grinding between $71K–$82K to finalize the bottoming process. Looking at Bitcoin’s URPD (UTXO Realized Price Distribution), the $71K–$80K range is actually a low-density zone with relatively thin volume. If price loses this area, it’s highly likely to test the major high-density cluster down at $65.9K–$70.5K. Conclusion: Our predicted price range for this cycle's bottom is $65.9K–$70.5K. If $70.5K holds, we’ll slowly grind out a bottom in the upper range. If it breaks, we’ll need to re-evaluate lower support structures.