CoinNiel2026-05-05

BTC: Sell Pressure Is Weak, but Volatility Risk Has Increased

Today’s BTC on-chain data shows continued exchange outflows, while Open Interest has expanded to a 30-day high. Spot-side sell pressure is not dominant, but leverage-driven volatility risk is rising. Exchange Netflow was -837.65 BTC on May 5, 2026, showing net outflows, but the outflow was much smaller than yesterday’s -6,590.46 BTC. This means the accumulation signal remains, but it is weaker than the previous day. Funding Rate stayed negative at -0.004496, with the 7-day average also below zero. This suggests the futures market is not long-overheated, and short-side pressure still appears present. Open Interest rose about 6.09% to roughly $29.05 billion, the highest level in the provided 30-day data. This can amplify directional momentum, but it also raises liquidation risk if price becomes unstable. Puell Multiple was 0.8516 on May 4, slightly above its recent 30-day average. As a supplementary cycle metric, it points closer to neutral recovery than extreme overheating. From a probability and risk perspective, today’s setup looks mixed rather than clearly bearish. The scenario weakens if price fails to rise while Open Interest keeps increasing, or if funding flips sharply positive. In summary, exchange flows still support limited sell-side pressure, but weaker outflows and rising Open Interest show higher market sensitivity. Negative funding reduces long-overheating concerns, yet derivatives buildup remains a volatility risk. Tomorrow, watch Exchange Netflow direction, Funding changes, Open Interest growth, stablecoin liquidity, and leverage overheating.