Carmelo_Alemán2026-05-02

Bitcoin Prepares the Assault: If It Breaks $78.6K, Liquidity Awaits Between $79.5K and $81K

Today, May 2, Bitcoin is once again attempting to break the daily resistance at $78,657. Since April 22, this is already the seventh time price has attacked this zone without managing to break above it clearly. The Spot Taker CVD appears in green, showing buy-side dominance in Spot. However, price still has not confirmed the breakout, suggesting that the resistance is absorbing demand. Spot is buying, but still not with enough strength. There is also tension in derivatives. The 1-minute Funding Rates showed extreme episodes yesterday, with punctual values close to -2.24%, reflecting shorts paying longs in an exceptional way. Even so, Open Interest has barely declined from 26.737M to 26.552M, a drop of only 185M, equivalent to -0.69%. What is interesting is that, while Open Interest was slightly declining, price advanced from the $78,480 to $78,585 area. Combined with a buy-dominant Spot Taker CVD, this suggests that the recent move has been mainly driven by Spot demand, not by an aggressive expansion in futures. The Estimated Leverage Ratio is near 0.245, a moderate level, although elevated compared to the recent lows of the week. The breakout does not necessarily depend on Spot, because it could also occur through an aggressive inflow into futures; however, if Spot accompanies the move, the breakout would have more strength and higher structural quality. On the heatmap, the zone between $79.5K and $81K appears very clear as an area loaded with liquidity, especially in 5x and 10x leverage. If Bitcoin breaks $78.6K, the $82K area could become the next natural price target. The risk is that, after sweeping that liquidity, the move loses strength and price corrects again due to the closing of leveraged positions. By Carmelo AlemánOn-Chain Analyst | CryptoQuant Verified.