MorenoDV_2026-04-30

Bitcoin Is Close to Flipping the Market Structure

Bitcoin’s Short-Term Holder MVRV continues to trace a clear structural pattern that has defined this cycle’s momentum, and more importantly, its underlying fragility. A descending trendline connects three precise structural peaks in the STH MVRV: the first in mid-March 2024, when the indicator reached levels above 1.4 as Bitcoin set a then-ATH near $72K; the second in late November 2024, as BTC surged to ~$106K, but this time, the MVRV peaked lower, flagging a textbook bearish divergence between price and sentiment; the third in July 2025, when another new high near $120K was printed while the indicator continued its pattern of lower highs. Three consecutive all-time highs. Three lower MVRV peaks. The trendline has held with remarkable precision. The market is now approaching what may be its most consequential test of this structure. STH MVRV is compressing back toward that trendline, a move that, if completed, would coincide with a potential reclaim of the STH Realized Price. That level acts as the cohort's aggregate cost basis, and price trading back above it would shift the short-term holder base from a loss-dominated to a profit-dominated state. What matters most at this juncture is not the touch itself, but what follows. A sustained reclaim of the Realized Price, paired with the MVRV stabilizing and trending above 1.0, would signal a structural regime change. It would suggest that recent buyers are no longer positioned to sell into weakness, removing a key source of overhead supply. Until that confirmation arrives, the trendline remains a ceiling, not a floor. Capital allocators should monitor both conditions in tandem before repositioning aggressively to the upside.