Carmelo_Alemán
Bitcoin Under Pressure: A Break Above $79.5K Could Trigger Massive Liquidations
Market sentiment in BTC remains bearish. Funding Rates have stayed negative for 19 consecutive days. When funding is negative, shorts pay longs, showing dominance of short positions. BTC is just below key daily resistance at $78,657. This is the first technical barrier, but the critical liquidation zone begins higher, around $79.5K. Until BTC clears both zones, sellers keep the advantage. The heatmap shows heavy liquidity above price, linked to leveraged shorts, especially x3 and x5. Open Interest remains elevated, although about $2,000M below Wednesday’s peak, when strong liquidations occurred. The hourly Taker Buy/Sell Ratio still does not confirm buyer dominance; it remains near equilibrium. If new aggressive shorts enter on Monday morning and price does not fall, that bearish pressure could become additional fuel for a Short Squeeze. The scenario requires convergence: Strategy spot purchases, positive spot ETF inflows, new long futures positioning and failure of aggressive shorts. If demand moves above $3,000M–$4,000M, BTC could clear $78,657 and reach $79.5K, where the main liquidations begin. If BTC breaks $79.5K with strength, it could trigger a liquidation cascade toward $82,000–$84,000. Liquidations could exceed $700M, and if momentum accelerates, BTC could even surpass the historical short liquidation record of $773.887M set on September 20, 2024. This is not a prediction. It is a conditional risk map. The thesis could develop tomorrow or later if price remains near this pressure zone. The thesis weakens if BTC rejects $78,657–$79.5K, Taker Buy/Sell remains below 1, and Open Interest falls without bullish pressure. If sellers fail above $79.5K, shorts could move from dominating sentiment to becoming the main fuel of the move. Visual sources: TradingDifferent heatmap and TradingView price/resistance chart. Carmelo Alemán | On-Chain Analyst | CryptoQuant Verified ♦️ X: @oro_crypto ♦️ LinkedIn: Carmelo Alemán ♦️ Email: [email protected]