Carmelo_Alemán
ETFs Confirmed What Bitcoin’s Short Squeeze Had Already Anticipated
In my previous article, “BTC’s Rally Was a Short Squeeze,” I explained that Bitcoin’s April 22 move did not appear to be driven by spot demand, but by an aggressive expansion in futures positioning that pushed price toward $79,447. The following data reinforces that thesis. On April 22, BTC reached an intraday high near $79,447 after Open Interest expanded by almost $3B. However, that same day, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a massive net outflow of -$1.845B. This is the key point: if price reached its high after a strong futures expansion while spot ETFs were registering aggressive outflows, the move was not cleanly validated by institutional spot demand. After the high, BTC lost momentum and fell toward $78,200, a decline of about $1,247, or -1.57% from the intraday high. This decline should not be interpreted only as ETF pressure, but as a combination of two forces: spot outflows through ETFs and the closing of futures positions. Open Interest confirms this second part. OI fell from around $27.56B on April 22 to $26.10B on April 23, a reduction of nearly $1.46B. It then fell again to $25.26B on April 24, another $839M decline, while price moved lower toward the $77,400 area. By April 25, with incomplete data, OI had only decreased by around $230M and price barely moved, remaining near $77,400. This shows that the strongest price reaction coincided with the largest futures position unwind. The sequence is clear: futures expanded first, the short squeeze pushed price higher, ETFs recorded a strong net outflow near the final phase of the move, and futures positions then began to close. This double pressure — spot selling and derivatives reducing exposure — better explains why momentum faded and why a larger liquidation cascade did not continue above $79,447. The conclusion remains intact: the rally was led by futures, not by spot. By Carmelo AlemánOn-Chain Analyst | CryptoQuant Verified