PelinayPA2026-04-25

Could We Have Missed the Bottom in Bitcoin?

Net Realized Profit and Loss showed very strong positive values in mid 2025. Investors were realizing significant profits, which can also be considered a distribution/top formation phase. Afterwards, NRPL gradually weakened and moved into negative territory. During the sharp decline at the beginning of 2026, loss realization increased noticeably. In the current picture, NRPL continues with a slightly negative tendency. In other words, there is no large scale profit taking, but aggressive capitulation selling has also subsided. Weak hands in the market have largely been flushed out. Throughout 2025, NUPL remained above 0.5, but later declined to around 0.2. At present, NUPL is in the ~0.25–0.30 range. This zone is neither cheap nor expensive. Investors are still in profit, but the previous level of confidence is gone. NRPL indicates that realized selling pressure has ended, while NUPL shows that the market is still in profit but acting cautiously. In other words, there are fewer sellers left, but buyers are not yet taking an active role. According to the data, investors are currently in a “let it rise a bit more so I can exit” mindset, which leads to selling on rallies. Since NUPL remains relatively low, the “buy every dip” mentality has not fully kicked in yet. The fact that NRPL is moving out of negative territory suggests that panic selling has ended and the market is transitioning into a slow recovery phase. Based on these two metrics, the market is neither in a bear phase nor at a bull market peak it is more in a recovery stage. At this point, Bitcoin investors are not expecting a major downside, but they also do not fully believe in a strong upside. As a result, they sell into strength and remain cautious when buying dips.