NUPL in the Hope Zone, STH-SOPR Recovering From Capitulation: Is This the Floor?

NUPL-in-the-Hope-Zone-STH-SOPR-Recovering-From-Capitulation-Is-This-the-Floor

NUPL measures the market's aggregate unrealized profit and loss; STH-SOPR shows whether recent buyers are selling at a gain or a loss. Down roughly ~40% from the $109K peak, NUPL has entered the Hope zone at 0.28 for the first time this cycle. Over that same window, STH-SOPR dropped to 0.92,  confirming that short-term holders were actively crystallizing losses, a textbook capitulation signal.
STH-SOPR is now recovering back toward 1.0, suggesting the most intense phase of sell-side pressure is fading. Historically, when NUPL sits in the Hope zone and STH-SOPR reverses from below 1.0, it has marked some of the cleanest accumulation windows of any cycle.
That said, NUPL has not crossed below 0, true capitulation territory, which either means institutional demand is intervening earlier than prior cycles allowed, or the real flush hasn't arrived yet. If STH-SOPR holds above 1.0, a sharp recovery becomes increasingly plausible. If it rolls back under, a deeper but cleaner structural low remains on the table.