Crypto Mommy2026-04-10

BTC Cycle Analysis: Why a Final Bottom is Likely

Bear market bottoming is a marathon of exhaustion. While data suggests we are halfway through, a final "wash-out" is likely still ahead. As the saying goes: history may not repeat itself, but it often rhymes. On-Chain Indicators： 1. Whale Profits (Unrealized): LTH Whales (>155 days) still hold significant profit buffers. Historically, true bottoms occur only when these profits approach zero, forcing a final transfer of chips from "strong hands" to the desperate. 2. MVRV Z-Score: This valuation metric is cooling but has yet to enter the negative/undervalued zone. Every "iron bottom" in history has seen this score dip below zero; currently, the market is merely cooling, not despairing. 3. Cost Basis (STH vs. LTH): A "Death Cross"—where Short-Term Holder (STH) realized price falls below Long-Term Holder (LTH) price—is the ultimate capitulation signal. This hasn't happened yet, meaning the final shuffle is incomplete. 🔮 Cycle Predictions: 1. The Bottom: Oct-Dec 2026 Rationale: At current trajectories, the STH and LTH cost curves should converge in Q4 2026. This timing aligns with a potential sub-zero MVRV Z-Score and a final panic sell-off by whales. Target: $55K – $60K, coinciding with a sub-zero MVRV Z-Score. 2. The Next Peak: 2nd half of 2029 Rationale: Following a late 2026 bottom, we expect a two-year accumulation phase. Combined with the April 2028 Halving, the market typically peaks 12–18 months post-halving, making late 2029 the likely window for the next parabolic bull run.