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Bottom Not Confirmed — SOPR and Coinbase Premium Reveal Weak Demand
Bitcoin is currently at a critical inflection point: is this a bottom, or just another phase of correction? Two key indicators help answer this question — STH-SOPR and the Coinbase Premium Gap. STH-SOPR (Short-Term Holder SOPR) measures whether short-term holders are selling at a profit or a loss. A value above 1 indicates profit-taking, while below 1 signals capitulation. When SOPR drops below 1, it typically reflects panic-driven selling and the exit of weaker hands. According to a chart created by CryptoMe, STH-SOPR is currently hovering around or below 1, indicating that short-term holders are realizing losses. This pattern is often observed during early stages of bottom formation, when selling pressure begins to get absorbed. However, understanding “who is buying” is equally important. This is where the Coinbase Premium Gap becomes critical. It reflects the price difference between Coinbase and other exchanges, acting as a proxy for U.S. spot demand. A positive premium suggests strong institutional buying from the U.S., while a negative value indicates weak demand or selling pressure. At present, the Coinbase Premium remains in negative territory, signaling that U.S. investors are not actively accumulating Bitcoin. In previous bull phases, sustained positive premium was a key driver of upward momentum — a condition not yet present. Combining these two indicators reveals a clear structure: short-term holders are selling at a loss, but there is no strong institutional demand to absorb this supply. This suggests that the market has not yet reached a true bottom. In conclusion, Bitcoin may be approaching a value zone, but the lack of confirmed demand — especially from U.S. investors — implies that the correction phase is still ongoing. A sustained recovery will likely require a clear shift in the Coinbase Premium into positive territory.