XWIN Japan
Miners Capitulate, Supply Dries Up — Bitcoin Enters a Structural Bull Phase
Miner selling pressure has declined sharply in recent data, signaling a clear reduction in supply entering the market. This trend often aligns with late-stage capitulation, where forced selling by miners has largely been exhausted. Historically, such conditions tend to coincide with bottom formation phases. However, the current environment differs slightly, as demand remains weak despite the improvement in supply dynamics. At the same time, hash rate continues to rise, indicating increasing competition across the network. This is particularly notable given the significant deterioration in mining profitability. Hash price is approaching historic lows, while the average cost of production has climbed to around $80,000, leaving a portion of miners operating at a loss. This divergence suggests that weaker players are being pushed out, while larger, more capitalized miners continue expanding their share. In many cases, mining operations are no longer evaluated solely on Bitcoin profitability, but also on their ability to transition into AI and high-performance computing infrastructure. Taken together, these signals point to a critical structural shift. In the short term, reduced selling pressure provides a supportive backdrop for price stabilization. Over the medium to long term, the ongoing consolidation of mining power and shrinking supply could create the conditions for a more structurally bullish market.