oinonen_t
Bitcoin Close to Deep Value Zone
[Bitcoin and Crypto-Related Stocks Resilient Amid the Chaos] Despite the geopolitical turmoil, Bitcoin has been exceptionally resilient during the past seven days, declining by only -3.8%. At the same time, there’s a divergence forming between Ethereum and Bitcoin, as the former has mainly moved sideways. At the same time, on-chain data shows increasing Binance whale activity. Quantitative analyst Juhani Savonen recently updated his model that shows global liquidity recovering. According to Juhani, many crypto-related stocks and DATs look attractive at the current valuations. [MVRV Approaching Deep Value Zone] As argued in the previous article, Bitcoin hasn’t met its real capitulation point yet, despite spot being -45% from the November highs. A true bottom indicator would be spot dipping deep into the realized price territory, in correlation with the 2020 and 2022 cycles. Bitcoin entering the realized price area would mean a drawdown of -20%. As Bitcoin trades lower, it’s also approaching the “MVRV deep value zone”, mirroring the market value to realized value indicator dropping below one (1). MVRV values of below one have historically been excellent Bitcoin entry points. [About MVRV] CryptoQuant's MVRV is an on-chain market indicator that measures Bitcoin's valuation by dividing its market capitalization (current price × circulating supply) by its realized capitalization (the aggregate value of all Bitcoin at the price when each coin last moved on-chain). A higher MVRV (historically >3.7) signals that Bitcoin is overvalued, often near market tops. A lower MVRV (below 1) indicates undervaluation, typically near market bottoms. [What’s Next?] The sentiment will likely remain cautious, as geopolitical risk remains sticky. However, Bitcoin’s MVRV approaching the deep value zone and lower spot offer a clear accumulation zone for committed investors.