RugaResearch2026-03-21

Puell Multiple Has Been Compressed for 60 Days. Miner Revenue Is Quiet.

The Puell Multiple has been sitting between 0.56 and 0.98 since late January. Current reading: 0.663. Sixty days without a meaningful recovery above 1.0. 📊 What This Measures Simple: it compares how much miners are earning today versus their 365-day average. Below 1.0 means revenue is below average. When it stays there for this long, miners sell what they need to pay the bills. Nothing more. Discretionary selling disappears. 🔍 The Historical Pattern Extended compression in this range has shown up at specific moments. Mid-2018 through early 2019, the Puell Multiple spent months suppressed before the market found its floor around $3,200. Mid-2022, the same condition held through the post-Luna collapse, well before the cycle low in November. Each time, the compression wasn't a trigger. It was a condition that quietly formed underneath. ⏳ What This Doesn't Mean Compressed miner revenue doesn't call a bottom. A sharp price drop from here could push some miners toward breakeven, which would increase their urgency to sell, not reduce it. Current setup: Puell Multiple at 0.663, range of 0.56 to 0.98 for 60 days, no recovery above 1.0. Context is important.