Darkfost2026-03-15

Ethereum futures volume outpaces spot by sixfold

As tensions between the U.S. and Iran continue to escalate, the price of oil keeps surging. This is unlikely to help President Donald Trump or the Federal Reserve given last week’s inflation figures, with core CPI at 2.5% YoY and, more importantly, core PCE coming in at 3.1% YoY. Rising oil prices represent another grain of sand entering an already fragile U.S. macroeconomic machine. The consequences will likely be reflected in the inflation data for March and April. As a result, investors and institutions are moving further away from risk assets such as crypto. This shift is accompanied by a strengthening U.S. dollar and rising long term bond yields. The altcoin sector is suffering the most from this environment, with Ethereum at the top of the list. We can observe a clear reduction in ETH open interest on Binance, with a drop of about 400,000 ETH in futures since January, representing nearly $4B. However, the spot to futures volume ratio on Binance has fallen to its lowest level since 2023, the end of the bear market. Today, there is more than six times as much futures volume as spot volume for ETH on Binance, despite the 300,000 ETH drop in open interest. This reflects genuine weakness in Ethereum’s spot market at the moment, and it is possible that sales from the Ethereum Foundation or even Vitalik Buterin are contributing to investor caution.