Darkfost
Market losses are easing after capitulation
In this context of growing uncertainty, realized losses continue to dominate Bitcoin. Today, we have $611M in realized losses versus $346M in profit, resulting in a net PnL of -$264M on a weekly basis. Even though the market remains negative, this represents a clear improvement in the situation. On February 7, the weekly average PnL stood at ~$2B, marking a clear capitulation as Bitcoin fell below $60,000. Short-Term Holders (STH) remain the most active participants. They also currently hold a larger share of the supply than during the bear market. The share of BTC supply classified as STH was 12% in January 2023, compared with 22% today, meaning it has almost doubled. The key now is for BTC’s momentum to continue and hold. This slight resilience is encouraging more investors to hold or accumulate, which is contributing to the current consolidation. Seeing the net PnL move back into positive territory would represent a clear step forward after more than four months dominated by losses and capitulation.