GugaOnChain2026-03-04

Oil Shock Extends Bear Market, but Bitcoin Shows Relative Strength

Summary of data and insights can be found in the infographic below. The current macroeconomic scenario demands caution and strategic allocation. The recent military intervention in Iran triggered a sharp shock in oil prices, with successive increases of 6%, pushing WTI above $75 and Brent to $82. This geopolitical context structurally prolongs the ongoing bear market. However, we observe a favorable risk-return asymmetry in Bitcoin, priced at $68,637, which demonstrates relative strength and is technically moving very close to the accumulation zone. The on-chain analysis of Exchange Inflow confirms this proximity, providing the following critical data: INTERPRETATION AND NUMBERS ◾ ≤ 40,000 BTC → indicate weak selling pressure and proximity to market bottoms. ◾ ≥ 90,000 BTC → point to strong selling pressure and proximity to market tops. ◾ Cycle Highs → Variation from 97,587 BTC (07/17/25) to 134,619 BTC (03/05/24) transferred to exchanges. ◾ Cycle Lows → Previous records between 13,994 BTC (09/07/24) and 58,584 BTC (05/01/24). ◾ Current Reading (03/03/26) → We observe a flow of only 28,235 BTC, signaling a drastic reduction in spot market selling pressure. CONCLUSION In summary, although global instability and the bear market are expected to persist, the low volume of deposits into exchanges validates the exhaustion of selling pressure in Bitcoin. It is important to emphasize that the accumulation zone has not yet been firmly established. Nevertheless, current data reveal that this opportunity is approaching, anticipating bottom before the cycle reversal.