Easy On Chain2026-02-10

The Great Rotation: How Whales Absorbed the Double Capitulation

On-chain data confirms that the "Double Capitulation" of Short-Term Holders (STH) and Miners was structurally absorbed by medium-to-large whales. 1. Double Capitulation (Sell-side) On Feb 5th, a systemic "clean-out" of weak hands occurred as Bitcoin prices dipped into the low $60K range. The Miners' Position Index (MPI) spiked violently to 2.95, confirming aggressive liquidations by miners to cover operational costs during the plunge. Simultaneously, the STH Realized Price (weighted average of holders <155 days) stood at $92,009, placing recent buyers in a severe "underwater" position where the STH SOPR at 0.977 proved they realized significant losses. 2. The Absorption: Strategic Whale Accumulation (Buy-side) This supply was absorbed into large-scale, off-exchange wallets. Whales holding 100–1,000 BTC dominated the market, accounting for 77% of the total inflow dominance during the dip. According to the LTH Realized Cap Change (7d) data, Long-Term Holders showed strong conviction by adding over $5.68B (Feb 5) and maintaining a positive change of $1.88B by Feb 10. This steady capital inflow from LTHs near the $69K level established strong downward price rigidity. 3. Conclusion While the immediate panic has subsided with MPI collapsing to -1.31, the market is not entirely out of the woods. The Hashprice recovered from its Feb 5th low to 0.035 on Feb 9th 📈, but it remains significantly below the 365-day moving average (0.048). This indicates that miners are still operating under strained profitability, meaning the risk of further sell-side pressure persists if prices remain stagnant. Although a "Supply Shock" is primed due to whale absorption, the $91,855 STH Cost Basis and low miner revenue suggest a cautious outlook is required until a decisive demand catalyst emerges.