GugaOnChain2026-01-26

Markets Under Pressure: Oil and Bitcoin Await the Decisive Super Wednesday

The so-called “super Wednesday” of January 28, 2026 promises to shake global markets. On one side, U.S. crude oil inventories, a direct reference for WTI (CL=F) and indirectly for Brent (BZ=F). On the other, the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates and the market’s anticipation of a possible hold. Both events have the potential to alter expectations of inflation, liquidity, and risk. In this scenario, Bitcoin emerges as an asset sensitive to the same variables, reacting both to energy shocks and to changes in monetary policy. The correlation between oil and BTC gains relevance as a thermometer of investor confidence. CRUDE OIL FUTURES (WTI – CL=F, MAR/26) ◾ Last price → US$ 60.73/bbl ◾ Daily variation → -0.34 (-0.72%) ◾ Today’s volume → 136,057 ◾ Friday’s volume → 260,445 ◾ Open Interest → 2,016,566 ◾ OI variation → -21,771 contracts BTC VS. CRUDE OIL – PERCENTUAL PERFORMANCE CORRELATION ◾ BTC Performance % → +5.08% ◾ Crude Oil Performance % → +0.01% ◾ Interpretation: moderate negative correlation in the week, reinforced by the drop in OI in oil → signal of risk reduction before super Wednesday. CONCLUSION The numbers reveal a market in a waiting mode. Super Wednesday will be decisive to calibrate expectations and may redefine the correlation between energy and crypto.