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The U.S. Market Structure Bill and the Next Phase of Crypto — On-Chain Data Signals Early Institutional Positioning

A draft U.S. Senate bill outlining a market structure framework for crypto assets has been released. While Bitcoin prices reacted positively in the short term, the real significance of this bill lies in its structural implications rather than immediate price movements. The bill seeks to clearly distinguish crypto assets as either commodities or securities and define which regulatory authorities oversee each category. Until now, regulatory ambiguity has largely been addressed through enforcement actions, leaving market participants uncertain. This draft aims to reduce that uncertainty by clarifying classification criteria in advance. Notably, fully decentralized networks and DeFi protocols are not treated as traditional financial intermediaries. Developers, validators, and node operators are not automatically classified as regulated entities, reflecting an acknowledgment of decentralization as a core structural feature. In contrast, centralized exchanges, brokers, and custodians face clearer requirements on registration, asset segregation, and disclosure—designed to support sustainable operations rather than suppress innovation. Bitcoin, Ethereum, stablecoins, and spot ETFs are all assumed to remain part of the U.S. financial system. On-chain data already reflects this transition. CryptoQuant’s Spot Average Order Size shows that around the $90,000 level, retail participation remains limited, while mid- to large-sized orders are relatively prominent. This suggests neither speculative retail euphoria nor panic selling, but a phase in which large investors cautiously adjust positions while awaiting regulatory clarity. Clear U.S. market structure rules are likely to influence institutional behavior and global regulatory discussions. While this bill is not a short-term price catalyst, on-chain indicators suggest the crypto market is already shifting from headline-driven moves toward a structure-driven phase.