PelinayPA
Bear Markets Are Now Mostly Sharp Corrections
The Puell Multiple evaluates Bitcoin’s long term valuation by measuring miner revenue making it a key indicator for supply side price analysis. Currently Puell is around 0.9 indicating neither a market top nor bottom. Miner profitability remains low, meaning there is no significant selling pressure from miners. Despite high prices the lack of an elevated Puell Multiple shows that miners are not flooding the market with supply largely due to reduced block rewards after halving. Historically major cycle peaks in 2013, 2017 and 2021 occurred when Puell reached the 6-10 range followed by sharp corrections. In the current cycle Puell has not even sustainably entered the 2-3 range suggesting that a macro top hasn't yet formed. As long as Puell stays between 0.8-1.0, price action is more likely to remain corrective rather than trend reversing. Combining Puell with NUPL provides clearer insight into market psychology. NUPL is currently around 0.37 showing that the market is profitable but far from euphoric. This level is typical of the mid phase of a bull market, where upward trends coexist with sharp pullbacks. The MVRV Ratio currently near 1.6 indicates that the average investor holds roughly 60% unrealized profit yet the market is not historically overvalued. Previous cycle tops occurred when MVRV exceeded 3.0 a level still well above current readings. Together these metrics suggest that bear markets may no longer be long and deeply destructive but instead take the form of aggressive corrections within an ongoing macro bull trend. Even 50–60% drawdowns should be viewed as deep corrections rather than structural trend changes. Compared to the 2017-2021 cycles where Puell rose first, followed by NUPL and then a spike in MVRV alongside price today’s market shows price advancing without metric confirmation. This implies the market is still early in the cycle, with structural supply constraints and ETF driven institutional demand reshaping Bitcoin’s traditional cycle behavior