XWIN Japan
Ethereum’s Quiet Accumulation: Capital Moves Ahead of Price While Valuation Stays Silent
Large institutional investors are quietly building ETH exposure ahead of any meaningful price movement. In the U.S., BitMine, led by Tom Lee, staked 82,560 ETH (approximately $260 million) in a single day, bringing total staking to roughly $1.7 billion within just one week. This behavior is more consistent with long-term network participation than with short-term speculative positioning. At the same time, Ethereum’s transaction count has reached an all-time high. The increase appears to be driven by sustained real usage, including Layer-2 activity, rather than purely speculative trading. Network activity has advanced faster than price, suggesting that usage has already entered a more mature phase while valuation has yet to fully respond. On the protocol side, Ethereum continues to prioritize long-term ecosystem growth over immediate revenue maximization. In 2025, the network gave up more than $100 million in guaranteed fee revenue. Since the Dencun upgrade, Layer-2 networks have paid only around $10 million to the mainnet while retaining approximately $119 million in revenue themselves, reinforcing scalability and developer incentives across the ecosystem. That said, valuation signals remain restrained. ETH’s MVRV ratio is not only well below levels observed during past bull markets, but also remains modest when compared with prior historical undervaluation phases. As the chart suggests, MVRV is hovering near its long-term neutral zone rather than approaching extreme lows or overheated conditions. This indicates that significant downside pressure appears limited, while the market has not yet entered a phase of broad profit expansion. At present, the base scenario is one of structural consolidation supported by improving fundamentals, rather than a confirmed bullish trend. However, if MVRV rises sharply or leverage-driven speculation re-emerges, this assessment would need to be reassessed.