XWIN Japan2025-12-28

A Faint Glimmer in a Consolidation Phase — Subtle Shifts in Bitcoin’s Supply-Demand Structure

The current Bitcoin market is best described as a corrective phase following an initial downside move. The prevailing bias remains cautiously bearish, although signs suggest that selling pressure may be gradually easing. This is not yet a clear transition into an uptrend, but rather a phase where the market is attempting to stabilize. What stands out in this environment is the divergence in behavior among market participants. While parts of the retail cohort are reducing exposure amid price weakness, on-chain data points to continued accumulation by so-called accumulator addresses—wallets characterized by long-term holding behavior and an absence of meaningful selling history. As shown in the attached data, these addresses have steadily increased their Bitcoin holdings even during periods of heightened price volatility, indicating decision-making based on longer time horizons rather than short-term price movements. This pattern suggests a gradual shift in market influence away from emotionally driven participants toward capital with greater patience and risk tolerance. However, this should not be interpreted as confirmation of an imminent bullish trend. Without improvement in structural factors such as ETF flows or the profitability profile of short-term holders, price action may remain range-bound. At present, the base scenario is that downside levels are being supported by long-term demand. That said, if accumulation demand begins to weaken or forced liquidations re-emerge, this interpretation would need to be reassessed. （Analysis Report No.162） The XWIN Group operates the DeFi platform “xwin.finance”.