Facundo Fama2025-12-24

Ethereum’s Last Quarter ↓

In this post, I will analyze ETH’s price action from October to the present and show how much the derivatives market has cooled during this period. • Price action: Areas 1–4: On the daily chart, there were only four opportunities with a favorable risk–reward profile to open short positions, using Anchored VWAPs (white lines) and the 50-day SMA (blue line) as visual references. These indicators acted as resistance. Areas 5–9: The AVWAP anchored to the Middle East war low acted as support for more than one month, prior to the definitive breakdown on November 3 (5–8). The AVWAP anchored to the 2025 ATL served as strong support for four consecutive days before the breakdown on November 13, when price closed below it (9). Currently, ETH is trading sideways between the AVWAPs anchored to the first 2021 ATH and the most recent ATL. • Open Interest: At the beginning of October, ETH open interest stood at USD 30B, and has since declined to USD 18B. The derivatives market cooled significantly following the sharp sell-off on October 10. • For now, from October to the present, Ethereum has been dominated by sellers.