Carmelo_Alemán
The Market Is Wrong: Strategy Is Worth More Than Its Current Price
Strategy currently holds 649,870 BTC in its treasury, with an average acquisition cost (corporate Realized Price) of $74,432 per BTC, according to the most recent official data, and an MVRV of 1.22, reflecting 22% in unrealized gains on its Bitcoin positions. These elements allow for a precise evaluation of how far the stock price deviates from the true value of its BTC assets. In recent weeks, the share price of Strategy (MSTR) has undergone a notable correction in the market; however, the data reveals something even more important: the price has moved directly into the undervaluation zone, according to CryptoQuant’s MSTR Price Bands (Bitcoin Holdings Based). These bands compare the actual stock price with the theoretical value implied by the company’s Bitcoin holdings (see chart): Upper Band: historical overvaluation zones where the stock tends to trade at an excessive premium. Lower Band: historical undervaluation zones where price typically rebounds after becoming too discounted. MSTR Price: the black line representing the real market performance. In the most recent chart, Strategy has already touched the lower band, indicating that the stock is trading below the theoretical valuation implied by its Bitcoin reserves. Historically, this condition has been a strong mispricing signal that precedes sustained recoveries. While Bitcoin has also retraced, Strategy’s decline has been deeper than the loss in the value of its Bitcoin holdings, widening the relative discount. In previous cycles, when the stock entered the lower band, its price eventually converged back toward its fair-value range as sentiment normalized. If historical behavior repeats, this level of undervaluation could represent one of the most significant inflection points in recent years. Signed by Carmelo Alemán, Verified On-Chain Analyst at CryptoQuant 📲 Connect with me: ♦️ X: @oro_crypto ♦️ YouTube: OroCryptoCanal ♦️ Email: [email protected]