Facundo Fama
BTC: The Drop Explained ↓
In this post, I will show how this latest drop caused more pain than the previous one, even though the price is trading above the 2025 ATL. For this purpose, I will use: several Anchored VWAPs, the Realized Price of the New Whales, Supply in Loss, and Japanese candles with volume incorporated. • Areas 1–2: The AVWAP anchored from Trump’s election victory (November 5, 2024) proved highly effective. That day, the closing price was 69k USD. In total, 19 daily candles used this AVWAP as support. This area was defended by buyers for months until the breakdown on February 24. On that date, the price closed below this AVWAP, confirming that sellers had taken control of the market since that event. • Areas 3–5: The AVWAP anchored from Bitcoin’s fourth halving acted as support on two occasions during the tariff-driven low. At this ATL, the price closed above the Realized Price of the New Whales, and more than 5M BTC were in loss. • Area 6: Then, on April 22, the price closed above the AVWAP anchored from Trump’s election victory, confirming that buyers had regained control of the market from that day. • Areas 7–15: The new uptrend began to weaken once the price repeatedly used the AVWAP anchored to the 2025 ATL as support. At the same time, it was unable to close consistently with volume above the AVWAP anchored to its latest ATH, and that AVWAP still has a negative slope, showing the lack of new demand. Then, just like on February 24, the price closed below the AVWAP anchored from Trump’s election victory. • Area 16: The price used the AVWAP anchored to the fourth halving as support again, but this time it closed below the Realized Price of the New Whales, something that had not happened since April 2022, and there were 7M BTC in loss, 2M more than the 2025 ATL. The last time there were this many BTC in loss after an ATH was in January 2022. • All these indicators show that we are in an undervaluation stage, making it a favorable context to start long-term DCA buying.