Arab Chain2025-11-27

Bitcoin Faces Mid-Cycle Pressure as Z-Score Falls to Its Lowest Level in Months

Data from Binance, the leading exchange by trading volume, indicates a critical phase in the Bitcoin cycle, where price action intersects with cyclical indicators and clearly weakening momentum. Bitcoin is trading near $91,000 after a period of sharp fluctuations and rebounds from local highs This decline coincides with cycle indicators suggesting that Bitcoin is entering a delicate transitional phase It has been 586 days since the last halving, meaning we are in the middle of the second half of the current cycle a phase typically characterized by increased volatility and reduced momentum compared to the beginning of the cycle. The Z-Score indicator is showing a negative reading of -1.81, marking one of its lowest levels since last March and indicating that Bitcoin is currently trading below its expected historical value compared to previous cycles This points to a clear weakening of medium-term momentum, especially given the price’s tendency to trade below key moving averages such as the 30 day and 90 day SMA, while the 200 day SMA is acting as a dynamic resistance zone reflecting increasing selling pressure The cycle_return indicator is also showing a negative value, indicating a slowdown in cyclical returns compared to the peak reached after the recent upward trend in the first half of 2025. The days into cycle indicator shows that the current cycle has been within the 52-day period following the recent peak, which is consistent with normal corrective behavior within a historical context, but requires close monitoring of liquidity and reserves on trading platforms. the $90,000 level becomes a pivotal support. A break below this level could open the door to a deeper correction, while holding above it provides an opportunity to establish a solid base for a retest of resistance.