Carmelo_AlemƔn
Has Bitcoin Found Its Bottom? Cohorts Tell the Whole Story
The recent drop in Bitcoin sparked many narratives, but on-chain data shows a market shaped by institutional redistribution, structural weakness, and a rebound that may signal a local bottom. š§© 1. Large Whales Have Been Distributing The >10k BTC and 1kā10k BTC cohorts remain mostly negative, reflecting sustained selling as institutions take profits and reduce risk. Conclusion: Major players continue to offload supply. š§© 2. Retail Is Also Distributing Over the last 60 days, 0ā1 BTC and 1ā10 BTC holders have shown net selling, not accumulation. Conclusion: Retail is not supporting the market ā they are adding to the distribution. š§© 3. Mid-Sized Cohorts Show Mixed Behavior 100ā1k BTC: accumulating steadily. 10ā100 BTC: accumulating consistently. These groups provide some support, but it isnāt enough to offset heavy selling from the 1kā10k cohort. š§© 4. Futures Played a Key Role in the Crash Alongside spot distribution, the futures market triggered a sharper decline. Over 13 days, especially the first 11, BTC fell from 106k to 79k mainly due to: A massive sweep of long positions. Futures-driven selling pressure. Liquidation cascades and margin calls. Conclusion: Leverage turned a normal correction into a violent drop. š§© 5. Has the Downtrend Ended? After an 11āday selloff and a fall from 106k to 79.5k, BTC has shown signs of stabilization. In the last 48 hours, price rebounded strongly to 88k, indicating a potential local bottom ā though not confirmed. Conclusion: Momentum looks constructive, but the trend reversal depends on sustained accumulation from key cohorts. Final Conclusion BTC may have formed a local bottom, supported by a strong rebound and accumulation from: 100ā1k BTC holders. >10k BTC holders. However, the crucial 1kā10k BTC cohort is still distributing, preventing a full confirmation of trend reversal. The recovery is promising, but the end of the bearish phase requires a clear shift in whale behavior. Signed by Carmelo AlemĆ”n