Crazzyblockk2025-11-20

UTXOs in Loss Reach 20%: Early Phase of a Bear Market or Mid-Cycle Correction

Following Bitcoin’s sharp drop to the $88–$89K range after several months of bullish momentum, the share of UTXOs in loss has risen above 20%. This indicates that a significant portion of coins currently underwater were acquired near previous highs, reflecting selling pressure from long-term holders. The behavior of these buyers is critical in determining whether the market is entering a bear phase or just experiencing a mid-cycle correction. Historically, examining the percentage of UTXOs in loss shows a consistent pattern: during mid-cycle corrections in bullish markets and in the early phases of bear markets, the share of UTXOs in loss rises to roughly 20–35%. In bullish cycles, corrections typically push 20–35% of UTXOs into loss, but the market remains in an overall uptrend. When this percentage continues to rise and holders in loss start “giving up” their coins, the subsequent selling pressure often determines the next major price movement. In summary, whether the market is entering a bear phase or undergoing a temporary correction largely depends on holder profitability and, more importantly, the tolerance of holders in loss. If the share of UTXOs in loss exceeds the 20–35% range, it signals potential large-scale capitulation and a higher likelihood of a sustained bear market.