COINDREAM2025-11-07

Is This the Bottom? True Fear Has Yet to Emerge(Part.02)

5. **Coinbase Premium Still Negative** Unlike previous downtrends where U.S. demand pushed the Coinbase Premium Index higher, this time it remains negative, implying **limited institutional or retail spot interest**. 6. **No Short-Term Holder Capitulation Yet** After the BTC ETF approval, the 9.2–9.7 range in the Short-Term Holder (STH) Realized Profit Ratio marked the last panic phase and a double-bottom pattern. Currently at **0.984**, the same capitulation signal is **absent**. 7. **Open Interest Falling with Price** The rapid decline in open interest alongside falling prices suggests that **traders are de-risking**, reflecting growing fear and risk aversion. 8. **Leverage Rising in a Weak Market** Despite the drop in open interest, leverage continues to climb — a worrying sign of **increasing speculative positions** that could amplify volatility if the market turns. *Conclusion* Binance data still shows elevated selling pressure, while demand indicators that typically signal a market bottom are missing. True bottoms form when short-term holders capitulate and **strong spot demand returns** — a scenario **not yet visible** in current market conditions.