gigisulivan
S2F as a perfect indicator for Value BUYs
I wrote about S2F multiple times in past few years as it is extremely reliable when finding the right entry price ranges during Bear market, and for Bull runs at least all but this current one, for exit points. My long term prediction based on that metric for current cycle was a top between 150-200k and to get a more accurate range I was waiting for a spike in S2F ratio during the usual post 1st bull phase top pullback (see BTCUSD chart comparison between 2021 and 2025). This s2F ration spike unfortunately did not happen this time and I would be surprised if it pops up to signify another strong attempt at getting BTC price closer to 150k. A week ago I wrote that we are likely into last 2 weeks of Bull run and with China tariffs "war" coming back into the picture and heavy impact of China restrictions on the semiconductors/chip production market that is heavily correlated with Bitcoin, this week's red candle is IMO marking the end of Bull. If you look again at the attached BTCUSD weekly chart screenshot it clearly shows a very strong bearish divergence that similarly marked end of 2021 2nd Bull phase. It is hard to ignore such strong TA setup, paired with the usual timeline of end of Bull runs since BTC halving (or as some measure since top of previous bull cycle), even though the usual onchain metrics aren't exactly flagging the end. So if this is the end of gains, how low will BTC go by end of 2026? That is where S2F ratio chart is coming in handy again, just like it did when I predicted 2022 lows hitting below 16.7k. The spike from previous cycle should be the "value" range top at 51.7k (an absolute minimum where I think we will see BTC for a prolonged time in Q3/Q4 next year), with a reasonable bottom of range around 32k. I would expect a relatively short period of time when we would see BTC price below 32k, but for those with low patience, use S2F Reversion chart as your guide to when hit the BUY button again.