Amr Taha

Binance (STH) Repeat Their Mistake: Bitcoin Dumps Again After “Clown Wallets” Buy

🗓️ Daily Market Update Since Oct 9th, Bitcoin price dropped by around –17%, from nearly $124k to $112k. On-chain data shows this fall wasn’t random, warning signs were already there. 📊 Chart 1: [Bitcoin] LTH/STH Inflow–Outflow (Binance) * Historically, BTC investors can be divided into 2 big groups — Short-Term Holders (STH) and Long-Term Holders (LTH). * (STH) usually fall into 2 behaviors: -Buy and hold from any price, or -Using technical analysis and following news events. -In both cases, they mostly end up losing — almost 99.99% of the time — they rarely reflect on the motivations behind their buying. * On Oct 9th, data shows a sharp spike in buying activity from a wallet group “Clown Wallets” — wallets that are famous for their poor timing in buying BTC tops. Roughly 484 BTC were accumulated on Binance that day, just after BTC hit $122k — the exact local top. * We’ve seen this exact behavior pattern three previous times: -Mid-July -Mid-August -Sep 12th Each time these wallets bought >450 BTC, BTC price dropped right after. Same thing happened again this time. Result: BTC fell –17% since their latest buy. 📊 Chart 2: BTC – STH/LTH Net Position Realized Cap This chart is even more telling. * Jan 24: STH realized cap peaked at $13.5B → BTC dropped -30% * July 18: Cap hit $29.5B → BTC dropped -10% * Oct 8: Cap hit $22.5B → BTC dropped from $124K to $112K Every time STHs pile in, price tanks. It’s not just bad timing—it’s a pattern. 📊 Chart 3: [Bitcoin ETF] Historical Netflow Trend ETF inflows started turning positive again since Sept 29, mainly led by iShares IBIT fund. However, most ETF buyers are retail investors — again, late to the trend with bad timing. 🧠 Final Takeaway * Watching (STH) behavior can be one of the most accurate signals for potential local tops or bottoms. * When (STH) start buying aggressively, they often become exit liquidity for whales, basically the clueless crowd rushing in when smart money is already out.