PelinayPA2025-10-10

Binance Whales Hold Their Ground: Bitcoin Eyes the $163K Fibonacci Target

The chart illustrates Bitcoin’s “Exchange Whale Ratio” (EWR) on Binance, which measures the proportion of BTC inflows to exchanges originating from the top 10 largest addresses. This metric helps assess whether large investors are creating selling pressure. When EWR is high (above 0.5), it indicates strong whale inflows to exchanges, often signaling increased selling pressure and potential local tops. When EWR is low (below 0.3), whales tend to stay away from exchanges, reflecting reduced selling pressure and accumulation behavior. Before the 2021 bull market peak around $65K–$69K, EWR experienced sharp spikes, confirming that whales were preparing to sell near the top. During the 2022 bear market, EWR mostly remained below 0.3, suggesting that selling pressure had eased and long-term accumulation had begun. From 2024 to 2025, as Bitcoin’s price climbed above $100K, EWR stabilized around 0.3 and showed fewer sharp surges. This indicates that whales have been maintaining their positions rather than distributing them, possibly favoring over the counter activity. Currently, Bitcoin trades around $118.7K, near historical highs, while EWR remains steady at approximately 0.3, showing no significant selling pressure. This implies a neutral to supportive whale stance, with no signs of large scale distribution. However, historically, sudden EWR spikes above 0.5 have preceded short term tops or corrections, so monitoring upcoming movements is essential. Low EWR levels continue to signal trend strength, suggesting the bullish momentum could persist. If EWR declines further, Bitcoin could target the Fibonacci 0.618 level near $163K on the linear daily chart. Considering the current macroeconomic landscape, further EWR decreases are more likely. Whale profit taking may not begin until Bitcoin approaches the key psychological resistance around $150K.