oinonen_t2025-10-09

MVRV Analysis: How Much Upside Left for 2025?

[Macro] After reaching a new all-time high of $125,000 on October 5th, bitcoin has since corrected downwards to $122,000. The altcoin sector remains divided: A selective altseason is clearly happening, however, a wider altcoin rally hasn't materialized yet. The crypto market capitalization has increased 8 percent week-over-week, hitting $4.46 trillion. The growing crypto market capitalization mirrors the growing popularity of altcoins, like Binance’s BNB, which has strengthened by 46 percent within 30 days. [MVRV Analysis: Potential Upside] Bitcoin's MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) Ratio is an efficient tool for evaluating bitcoin's potential upside for the fourth and last quarter of the year. The MVRV ratio divides bitcoin's market capitalization by realized cap (value of coins at last transaction price). Let's divide MVRV Ratio to three scenarios: Base Scenario: MVRV rises to 3.0 - 3.5, driving a 15 - 25% rally. End-Q4 price: $140,000 - $150,000. Supported by short term holder (STH) cost basis as floor, and long term holder (LTH) accumulation. Negative Scenario: MVRV stagnates at 2.5 amid unfavorable macro: -23% correction to $95,000. This scenario is unlikely, given the current on-chain strength. Positive Scenario: MVRV hits 4.0+ (market euphoria, correlation with 2021 cycle), fueled by a supply shock. End-Q4 price: $170,000 - $200,000. Aligns with halving cycle extensions. As a wrap-up, MVRV signals strong Q4 upside potential, with $150,000+ realistic if the momentum sustains, positioning bitcoin for a cycle peak without immediate overvaluation. Previously, Charles Edwards has estimated bitcoin being undervalued, referring to his energy value model.