Kripto Mevsimi2025-10-01

Losses Deepened Since My Last Note — Now STH-SOPR Shows Early Recovery

As I noted in my previous analysis : https://cryptoquant.com/quicktake/68a2dc15b244141e108456e6-For-the-First-Time-Since-January-Bitcoins-Short-Term-Holders-Are-Back-to-Selling Now we need to analyze current situation and what happened between these dates... Since then, that stress has deepened: through September, STH-SOPR fell as low as 0.992, marking a period where speculative wallets continued to sell at a loss. Now, by the end of September, the metric has recovered slightly to 0.995 — still below August’s 0.998 reading, but showing signs of stabilization after the trough. This comes as BTC trades around $114K–115K, right under a heavy resistance zone. Historically, such resets have carried two possible outcomes: 🟥 Weakening Momentum → Extended loss realization can precede corrective phases where weak hands capitulate. 🟩 Healthy Reset → Quick absorption of realized losses often clears the path for more sustainable rallies. With BTC consolidating under resistance, this rebound in STH-SOPR is a key barometer of market health. If buyers continue to absorb weak-hand selling, it could mirror past resets that paved the way for the next leg higher.