Darkfost2025-09-28

LTH activity cools as CDD and SOPR signal declining sell pressure.

On the LTH side, activity finally seems to have cooled down if we look at what’s happening with CDD (Coin Days Destroyed). - After a monthly average peak of over 1.3 million, monthly CDD has now been cut in half to around 650,000, moving back below the yearly average, which still remains elevated. CDD is a very relevant metric to measure the “firepower” of LTHs, as it accounts for the holding days of BTC that have just been moved. It’s a strong early indicator: when BTC are moved by LTHs, it’s often with selling in mind, and CDD signals this right at the moment of movement, giving a chance to anticipate selling pressure. Let’s hope this cooling trend continues. - Looking at realized profits, LTH SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) has also weakened and now sits at 1.26 its lowest level since November 2024. On a monthly average basis, after peaking at 3 (a 200% average profit), it has also dropped sharply and is now at 1.70, meaning a 70% average profit. This decline signals that LTH selling pressure is decreasing. Even though the market has evolved, LTHs continue to have a significant impact and therefore remain a key group to monitor.