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The Power of Long-Term Holders Returns: Is Bitcoin Entering a New Bull Phase?
Looking back at historical cycles, the SOPR Ratio (LTH/ STH) has been a key signal in Bitcoin’s market dynamics. 2010–2013 The ratio showed extreme volatility as Bitcoin was in its discovery phase. Long term holders (LTHs) dominated profitability, with sharp spikes during price surges. 2014–2018 During the 2014 bear market, the ratio dropped sharply, reflecting stronger selling pressure from short-term holders (STHs). By 2017, the ratio climbed again, with LTHs leading the rally. 2019–2021 In the 2020–2021 bull run, the ratio remained moderate, meaning STHs also captured significant profits. This created a more fragile top, which eventually led to correction. 2022–2024 The bear market saw the ratio remain low, signaling weaker profitability for LTHs compared to STHs. However, in the 2023–2024 recovery, the ratio started to rise again, suggesting that LTHs regained their advantage a potential early sign of a shift toward a new bull phase. A high SOPR Ratio (LTH > STH) means long term investors are more profitable than short term ones. Historically, this aligns with sustained price rallies, as LTHs tend to be more resilient and create less selling pressure. A low SOPR Ratio (LTH < STH) often appears at late stage bull markets or bear market beginnings, signaling weaker market structure. The ratio is balanced but trending upward, indicating LTHs are once again gaining the upper hand. If this trend continues, it could be a bullish signal and potentially set the stage for Bitcoin to surpass $120K in the next rally.