PelinayPA2025-09-15

Bitcoin On-Chain Metrics Point Toward $150,000

The NVT Golden Cross measures Bitcoin’s valuation relative to on-chain transaction volume, helping identify whether the asset is overvalued or undervalued. High NVT Golden Cross (>2, red zone): Historically signals market tops. In the 2013, 2017, and 2021 bull cycles, the metric spiked to 4–6, marking overheated conditions and profit-taking phases. Low NVT Golden Cross (<-1, green zone): Historically marks bottoms. Seen in 2011, 2015, 2019, and early 2020, these levels preceded strong rallies, often signaling accumulation opportunities. Current Status (2025): The metric sits near 0.3 (neutral to slightly positive). This indicates neither extreme overvaluation nor undervaluation, but rather a healthy uptrend. Short Term: With the metric not elevated, Bitcoin is not yet in bubble territory. There is still room for price expansion. Medium Term: If NVT rises above 2, it could signal overheating and trigger profit taking. Long Term: A move into negative territory would indicate a strong accumulation zone and a buying opportunity. Overall, Bitcoin is not in a high-risk zone. Historical patterns suggest the price could climb toward the $120,000–$150,000 range in the coming months. However, caution is warranted once the NVT Golden Cross exceeds 2, as that has consistently aligned with cycle tops.