CryptoOnchain
Ethereum Eyes Breakout Beyond $4,400 as On-Chain Momentum Holds Strong
1. Technical Outlook On the Renko chart (Renko 1% LTP), Ethereum has surged from the $2,400 area to around $4,190 and is now attempting a breakout above the key $4,000 psychological and technical resistance. The green zone between $4,000 and $4,400 marks a multi-year resistance range with strong historical selling pressure. The MACD histogram has flipped positive and is expanding, signaling strong bullish momentum. A confirmed breakout and daily/weekly close above $4,400 could open the door toward retesting the all-time high region ($4,800 and beyond). 2. On-Chain Data (Heatmap) From the normalized Heatmap: MVRV_norm (deep red) is near upper historical ranges → A large portion of holders are in profit; historically, this can trigger selling pressure, but it is still within a rally phase. Supply_in_loss_norm (green) is near historical lows → Very few addresses are underwater → Sellers are weak. Realized_price_norm is rising alongside market price → Signals fresh capital inflow and higher realized network value. NUPL_norm is in a high-positive zone → Investors are broadly in profit but not yet in full "euphoria" mode. Supply_in_profit_norm (orange) is elevated → Confirms widespread profitability. 3. Summary & Scenarios Primary short-term scenario: Break above $4,400 with momentum could lead to $4,800 in the near term if buying pressure remains strong. Medium-term view: On-chain metrics have not yet reached extreme overheated levels (e.g., MVRV > 3, peak NUPL), suggesting room for further upside before major cycle tops. Risk note: Profit-taking pressure may increase as more holders move deep into profit, especially if momentum fades after $4,400.