Chairman Lee2025-07-25

Rising Whale Ratio and Key Volume Node at $118K – Can Bitcoin Hold This Level?

Summary: Bitcoin is trading near $117.3K, sitting just below a major volume node at $118K. On-chain whale activity is rising, with the Exchange Whale Ratio climbing toward 0.52 — a level that historically signals elevated selling pressure from large holders. Price stability above $116K–$118K will determine whether the market can avoid deeper profit-taking and resume its uptrend. Body: Two critical factors are shaping Bitcoin’s short-term outlook: Volume Profile Concentration at $118K: The visible range volume profile shows a heavy accumulation cluster between $117K and $118K. Price is currently trading below this node, indicating this zone is acting as resistance after recent retracements from $120K+. A sustained move above $118K could re-open the path toward $120.8K and $124K. Exchange Whale Ratio at 0.52: The ratio, measuring the share of top-10 whale inflows vs total inflows, has spiked to 0.52. Historically, readings above 0.4–0.5 often precede short-term corrections as whales distribute or hedge positions. This suggests that any failure to reclaim $118K quickly could trigger another wave of selling toward $114K–$112K. Implications for Traders: Bullish Case: Holding $116K–$118K with declining Whale Ratio could confirm the zone as a springboard, setting up a move to $120K–$124K. Bearish Risk: Sustained Whale Ratio above 0.5 while price stays capped below $118K could lead to profit-taking waves, targeting $114K–$112K liquidity zones. Conclusion: The $118K node is the immediate battleground. With whale inflows rising, traders should closely monitor whether the ratio retreats below 0.4. If it cools down, a bullish continuation toward $124K is plausible. If it remains elevated, expect a shakeout phase before any new leg higher.