burakkesmeci2025-07-10

Bitcoin’s Up, Retail’s Quiet—This Rally’s Not Done Yet

Bitcoin hits a new ATH at $115K — but is this the cycle top? Retail investors are still missing. Is this rally still institutional? 1⃣ Definition of the Metric "Spot Retail Activity Through Trading Frequency Surge" tracks the trading frequency of retail investors in the Bitcoin spot market. When trading activity significantly increases compared to the 1-year moving average, bubbles appear: 🟢 Green: few retail investors 🟠 Pink: increasing activity 🔴 Red: too many retail investors (caution!) 2⃣ Current Status Despite Bitcoin reaching a new ATH at $115,000, there are no signs of overheating in the retail investor metric. For the past 16 months, since March 2024, the chart has stayed in the gray zone — meaning retail investors have not yet fully entered the game. ✅ Conclusion In past bull cycles, as the market approached the top, retail trading activity would spike dramatically. That’s not what we’re seeing right now. This suggests that the cycle top may still be far away. The bull market is still largely driven by institutions and ETFs. When retail finally enters the scene, that might mark the beginning of the final phase.