Avocado_onchain2025-06-23

Quiet Consolidation: Long-Term Holders Still Holding, Not Selling

Bitcoin’s price recently dropped sharply to $98,000 but has since recovered to above $100,000. While concerns about a potential double top are spreading and market sentiment is turning bearish, as mentioned before, on-chain data has not shown any significant warning signs. Overall, Bitcoin still appears to be in a quiet phase of consolidation, gathering strength, and based on the 30-day moving average of Binary CDD, long-term holders continue to hold rather than sell. In a previous analysis, I noted that a Binary CDD 30MA value above 0.8 often preceded correction phases. However, this time the indicator peaked around 0.6 and has started to decline, suggesting that the market is not yet showing signs of overheating. Although the data may not align perfectly from cycle to cycle, this moderation below 0.8 still implies the market may be entering a consolidation period, and further price or time correction could follow. Importantly, this does not signal the end of the bull cycle. Instead, similar to the past two phases, we may once again see a staircase-like movement where consolidation is followed by another leg up. Historically, Bitcoin’s explosive rallies tend to occur when market attention fades and sentiment is quiet, making the current silence potentially a precursor to the next big move.