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Bitcoin’s Rebound Without Overheating Is a Clear Sign of a Healthy Bull Market
During this cycle, each time Bitcoin set a new all-time high, Binance saw a sharp spike in both market buy volume and funding rates—followed by a period of correction due to overheating. This same pattern has played out twice. (Chart – Boxes 1 and 2) Now, as Bitcoin appears poised to break through previous highs again after a price correction, the pattern looks different. Notably, this rebound is occurring without an overheated funding rate, and Binance market buy volume is actually trending downward. (Chart – Box 3) While some may interpret this as a sign that market momentum is still weak, I believe it reflects a healthier rally. Here’s why: 1. In the two previous rallies, the rapid overheating led to prolonged corrections. During those corrections, investor sentiment weakened significantly, and many exited the market. As the market lightened, Bitcoin eventually surged to new highs. Although sentiment has improved after the recent rebound, funding rates and market buy volumes suggest the market remains lightweight and cautious. 2. While short-term fluctuations exist, market buy volume has shown a steady upward trend since 2023. (Chart – Yellow Arrow) This indicates that buying sentiment remains favorable for further upside, suggesting that it’s not yet time to consider an exit. We can’t predict exactly when Bitcoin will break its previous high, but current on-chain and market data signals remain very constructive.