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Do 4 Different Cyclical On-Chain Metrics Signal the End of Bitcoin’s Bull Market?
1 - Bitcoin IFP Metric Continues to Flash Bearish Signals IFP 696K IFP SMA90 794K As long as IFP remains below SMA90, this metric does not indicate a trend reversal to the upside. 2 - Bitcoin CQ Bull & Bear Market Cycle Indicator Also Remains Bearish During the current uptrend, this indicator has previously flashed weak bearish signals similar to what we see now. The key question: Is this a natural correction or the start of a deeper bear phase? DMA365: 0.18 DMA30: -0.16 Until DMA30 crosses above DMA365, we cannot confirm a bullish trend shift based solely on this metric. 3 -Bitcoin MVRV Score Remains Below SMA365—Will the Correction Continue?* Historically, when Bitcoin’s MVRV score remains below its 365-day moving average (SMA365), selling pressure intensifies. During the current bull cycle (which I believe is not over yet), Bitcoin last fell below this support level during the August 5, 2024 carry trade crisis. Once the crisis subsided, MVRV reclaimed SMA365, signaling recovery. I’ve set an alert—once MVRV crosses above SMA365, you’ll be the first to know. 4 - Bitcoin NUPL Metric Still Below SMA365—End of the Uptrend? While NUPL alone is not enough to confirm the end of the bullish trend, for Bitcoin to regain strength, we would expect NUPL to reclaim SMA365. - NUPL: 0.49 - NUPL SMA365: 0.53 Conclusion All of these metrics suggest that Bitcoin is experiencing significant turbulence in the short to mid-term. However, none of them indicate that Bitcoin has reached an overheated or cycle-top level. This resembles the carry trade crisis of August 5, 2024, which also drove Bitcoin lower due to macroeconomic conditions. Trump’s tariff policies and rising uncertainty have negatively impacted macro indices and Bitcoin, triggering bearish signals across key cyclical indicators. We saw a similar situation a year ago - once macro pressures faded, Bitcoin recovered. Will history repeat itself this time? Let’s wait and see.