Avocado_onchain2025-01-23

Long-Term Holders Are Selling, But They Still Retain Significant Holdings

After Bitcoin surged past $109,000 to set a new all-time high, its upward momentum has slowed, with prices currently hovering slightly above $100,000. Analyzing the SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) of long-term holders with a 30-day moving average shows that during the six-month correction period from March 2024, these holders largely refrained from selling and maintained their holdings. As Bitcoin’s recent rally began, they resumed selling, a behavior reminiscent of the 2021 bull market.(chart 1) For short-term holders, the SOPR (30-day moving average) reveals a more frequent selling strategy compared to long-term holders, with several instances where the ratio exceeded 1.02. However, SOPR values above 1.06, typically observed during the latter stages of a bull market, have not yet appeared. If short-term holders’ profits peak and the SOPR sharply rises, it could signal an imminent cycle top.(chart 2) Examining the UTXOs of holders with over six months of holding time indicates that they still retain significant amounts of Bitcoin, suggesting that the current cycle is ongoing.(chart 3) As long-term holders begin transferring their Bitcoin to short-term holders, it is crucial to approach new investments cautiously from a cyclical perspective. Existing Bitcoin holders may consider reducing risk through gradual profit-taking. For those using Bitcoin as a long-term store of value, maintaining a long-term holding strategy remains a valid approach.