Darkfost2025-01-03

Bitcoin supply dynamic : LTH selling pressure VS STH demand and realized price.

1- We are currently witnessing a transfer of Bitcoin supply between Long Term Holders and Short Term Holders. Historically, when this occurred, it was often associated with a local market top or even a cycle peak, depending on the market's stage and broader conditions. At present, demand from STHs continues to support Bitcoin’s price. 2- By analyzing the realized price of STHs across various acquisition periods, several key support and resistance levels can be identified: - Realized price: $41k - STH Realized price: $85k - STH Realized price (1W - 1M): $99k - STH Realized price (1M - 3M): $81k - STH Realized price (3M - 6M): $60k 3- Currently, the STH SOPR ratio remains neutral at 1 after declining from the last rally that pushed BTC to its most recent ATH of $108k. This suggests that selling their BTC is no longer profitable for STHs under current market conditions. In conclusion, the selling pressure from LTHs has so far been fairly well absorbed by the buying pressure from STHs. However, we note that the STH SOPR is declining, which could hinder an immediate bullish recovery. In the short term, a period of consolidation or even a deeper correction might occur.