New inflows haven't even started yet

New-inflows-havent-even-started-yet

This data shows the BTC price action and newcomers(between 1 week and 1 month of entry) holdings over the past 8 years, and it tells us the following

 - In a long-term bull cycle, the price peaks (=green horizontal dotted line) when the number of new entrants crosses a threshold (=green vertical shaded box).
 - This is a strong sign of entry by newcomers experiencing FOMO.
 - Instead, the current bull cycle does not have a trend of new inflows at price tops.
 - Note that the spike in new inflows in '24.1Q is just a wave between longer-term cycle tops (= red vertical shaded box).

For now, Bitcoin's upward momentum continues to rely on spot ETFs, but we can expect to see more upside as exiting and new investors enter the market.