DanBTC916
2024 Bitcoin Bull Market Will Be Led by Institutions
In today’s Quicktake, we will be covering historical data that strongly suggests institutions are firmly here and entering the 2024 bull market. The yellow line shows Exchange Depositing Transactions, the blue line is the Mean Exchange Inflow metric, while the orange line is Bitcoin price. During the previous bull market in 2021, we saw a surge in Exchange Depositing Transactions, with a below average reading in Mean Exchange Inflow. High exchange depositing transactions with a lower Mean Exchange Inflow strongly suggests the previous bull market had retail investors speculating on price, with not much activity from the large institutions we see today. The 2022 bear market led to a steady decline in the number of Exchange Depositing Transactions and retail interest, likely due to the implosion of crypto companies and tokens. After things settled, notice how in the later part of 2023, the Mean Exchange Inflow began to slowly trend higher even with a continuing decline in Exchange Depositing Transactions. This suggests larger players began entering the market, with higher volume activity, causing the Mean Exchange Inflow to rise. The consistent downtrend in Exchange Depositing Transactions can also suggest that retail investors have not entered Bitcoin yet. Google search trends show a low reading on Bitcoin, despite price nearing the all time highs in 2021. The Spot ETF flows in my opinion, will influence the Mean Exchange inflow metric as we are seeing a lot of volume traded through the Spot ETFs. I expect the Mean Exchange Inflow metric to continue trending higher, as more investors enter Bitcoin through the ETFs as the bull market continues. The trend of this data along with new records in CME BTC Futures Open Interest suggest further upside for Bitcoin.