Yonsei_dent2024-01-31

"Has the miner already realized enough profits?"

Mining rewards constitute the primary source of income, comprising more than 80% of miners' revenue. Should the BTC price decline or the hashrate increase, causing mining costs (including electricity and time) to rise, miners may face substantial challenges. Consequently, miners tend to react more sensitively to market fluctuations compared to investors, but they also demonstrate greater resilience. The Hashribbon employs the Hashrate 30DMA and 60DMA to identify miner capitulation and market recovery. When these two bands undergo a dead cross followed by a golden cross, it is considered an indication that the market has either hit bottom or rebounded from a trough. By examining the MPI indicator during such periods, one can assess how much miners are selling in comparison to the annual average. ☑️ Firstly, despite the downward adjustment following the BTC ETF, the Hash Ribbon has not yet displayed a death cross. ☑️ If we examine miner capitulation selling at an MPI index level of 4.0 during previous bear market lows and bottoms⬛, it becomes clear that this adjustment does not signify the emergence of miner capitulation. ☑️ Nonetheless, MPI has seen a substantial increase in 2023, largely attributed to the mining industry's efforts to sell BTC in order to alleviate financial stress during the bear market. ☑️ In addition to the BTC ETF rally, miners sold significant quantities of BTC in January 2024. This appears to have been a proactive move in preparation for future halving events. 📌Based on the Hash Ribbon analysis, concerns regarding capitulation appear to be minimal. Furthermore, it seems that miners have already secured enough profits and strengthened their financial positions. This suggests that miners possess the capability to withstand potential deeper corrections in the BTC market in the future.