Yonsei_dent2024-01-18

<Will LTH’s cost-basis of $36.7k become key support?>

Through the 'Realized Price-UTXO Age band' you can check the Realized Price for each age of BTC on UTXO. This acts as a cost-basis and becomes the psychological level of investors. That level can act as support/resistance. ⚠️ However, the band should not be interpreted literally. This is because each cohort has a different percentage (%) of the total Realized Cap. 📌 Let's take a look at the actual Realized Price of LTH (investors who have held more than 155 days) in the last cycle (2020-2022) based on the Realized Cap ratio. Cohorts from 6m to 3yr fall into this category, accounting for 60.93% of the Total Cap. *D = Dominance 🟧6m~12m RP : $27.08k / D : 11.71% 🟩12m~18m RP : $18.61k / D : 11.71% 🟪18m~2yr RP : $33.29k / D : 8.81% 🟦2yr~3yr RP : $49.24k / D : 28.70% ☑️The weighted average value reflecting their weight is $36.78k 1) The LTH Cost basis does not show much difference from $37.04k in August. Since the 2yr~3yr cohort, which occupies the largest dominance, are investors who bought near the top of the last cycle, support at $36.7k appears likely unless capitulation occurs. 2) The realized price of 1-3 month holders, a source provided by CQ Research Director Julio Moreno, also shows an average unit price of $36.7k, which is consistent with this analysis.